🏒 Blue Jackets vs Capitals Prediction (Nov 25, 2025) — Why OVER 6.5 Is the Right Play

The Metropolitan Division heats up on Monday night as the Columbus Blue Jackets visit the Washington Capitals in a matchup loaded with scoring trends, shaky defensive metrics, and two teams that have leaned heavily toward high-event hockey over the past two weeks. This Blue Jackets vs Capitals prediction focuses on one thing: goals — and plenty av dem.

Blue Jackets enter with an 11-8-3 record and a growing offensive identity built around Marchenko, Fantilli and Voronkov. The Capitals, sitting at 11-9-2, come off explosive wins of 7–4 vs Edmonton and 8–4 vs Montreal before a 5–3 loss to Tampa Bay where they still generated major scoring chances. Both teams are trending toward pace, transition play, and defensive vulnerability — ideal ingredients for an OVER bet.

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🔥 Recent Form Favors High Scoring

Nothing drives this Blue Jackets vs Capitals prediction more than both teams’ scoring form:

✅ Washington’s Last 5 Games

• 12 goals allowed
• 22 goals scored
• All five games had 7+ total goals
• Power play on fire, Tom Wilson & Ovechkin red hot
• Defensive-zone coverage breaking frequently

✅ Columbus’ Last 5 Games

• 17 goals allowed
• 15 goals scored
• Four of last five reached 6+ goals, three hit 7+
• Merzlikins inconsistent — and he starts again
• Great 5v5 creation but poor defensive gap control

When two teams are both giving up 30+ shots regularly while converting a high clip offensively, the OVER 6.5 becomes a natural fit.

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📊 Team Statistical Breakdown

This Blue Jackets vs Capitals prediction leans heavily on underlying numbers:

Columbus

• 2.95 GF/G — 3.18 GA/G
• 30.7 shots per game
• Top-six driving almost all offense
• 74.1% PK (bottom of NHL)
• Struggle defending lateral puck movement

Washington

• 3.23 GF/G — 2.73 GA/G
• 29.7 shots per game
• Red-hot top line with Wilson–Strome
• PP producing consistently (10 goals)
• Defense prone to blown coverages under pressure

Washington’s PK (71.8%) is even worse than Columbus’, making special-teams goals highly likely. Add in two goalies known for inconsistency (Merzlikins & Thompson), and the OVER makes even more sense.

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🧠 Matchup Analysis

This Blue Jackets vs Capitals prediction centers on:

✔️ Pace

Both teams rank top-10 in odd-man rushes created over the past 10 games.

✔️ Defensive Instability

Washington hemorrhages high-danger chances. Columbus allows constant slot shots.

✔️ Goalie Mismatch for OVER

• Merzlikins: 3.37 GAA / .900 SV%
• Thompson: 2.24 GAA but trending down last 3 games

Washington just allowed 5 to Tampa and 4+ in four of last five games. Merzlikins has allowed 3+ in seven of his last ten starts.

✔️ Previous Meeting

Washington won 5–1 earlier this season.
This Blue Jackets vs Capitals prediction expects Columbus to contribute far more offensively this time.

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🎯 Pick & Final Score Projection

Play: OVER 6.5 (+100)
Units: 4 Units
Bookmaker: 10bet

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Odds calculator via sports-statistics.com

Our review of 10bet

🔮 Predicted Final Score

Washington Capitals 4 – 3 Columbus Blue Jackets

A tight, offensive game where both teams generate plenty of scoring chances, special-teams goals play a key role, and the goalies don’t hold up.

This Blue Jackets vs Capitals prediction has all indicators pointing in the same direction — OVER.