Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Prediction: Strong Value on Leafs +110

NHL – Saturday, March 1, 2026
Play: Toronto Maple Leafs +110
Units: 4

Bookmaker: 10bet
Offer: Get 100% up to £50

Our review of 10bet

The Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators prediction for Saturday night centers around one key factor: market value. Toronto is listed as a home underdog at +110 despite sitting just one point behind Ottawa in the Atlantic Division standings.

This is a divisional rivalry with playoff implications — and we’re backing the home side at plus money.

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Why Toronto Maple Leafs +110 Has Betting Value

When breaking down this Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators prediction, the number is simply too good.

Toronto:

• 16-9-6 at home
• Averaging 3.22 goals per game
• Already beat Ottawa 7-5 earlier this season

Ottawa:

• 14-12-3 on the road
• Allowing 3.21 goals per game
• Penalty kill at just 72.8%

Toronto’s defensive metrics aren’t elite, but this is a high-offense roster that thrives in up-tempo rivalry spots. The Leafs’ top six forwards can tilt the ice quickly, and when the game opens up, that benefits Toronto.

Getting +110 at home in a divisional matchup is value.

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Goaltending Matchup: Woll vs Ullmark

Joseph Woll (Toronto):

• 2.92 GAA
• .910 SV%

Linus Ullmark (Ottawa):

• 2.83 GAA
• .884 SV%

While Ullmark’s goals-against looks solid, the save percentage tells the fuller story. Woll has been steadier in net, and if this becomes a high-shot-volume game, that edge matters.

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Situational Spot Favors Toronto

Atlantic Division standings:

• Ottawa: 64 points
• Toronto: 63 points

This is essentially a four-point swing game.

Yes, Toronto has struggled recently at home. But markets often overreact to short-term trends. Over the full season, the Leafs are still one of the league’s most dangerous offensive teams.

The first meeting ended 7-5 in Toronto’s favor — proof they can outscore Ottawa in this matchup.

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Betting Angles Supporting the Pick

✔ Home underdog value
✔ Division rivalry intensity
✔ Offensive ceiling advantage
✔ Stronger recent save percentage
✔ Prior head-to-head success

Ottawa’s recent 6-3-1 stretch is solid, but Toronto’s recent losses came in tough road spots. Returning home in a divisional game changes the context entirely.

This price reflects recent form — not true matchup value.

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Final Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Prediction

We’re taking the plus money.

4-Unit Play: Toronto Maple Leafs +110

In a tight divisional race, price is everything. Toronto’s offensive upside and home ice give them a strong chance to win outright — and at +110, the value is clear.