The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix brings the 2025 Formula 1 season to a pressure-filled conclusion, with a championship that has gone down to the wire between Lando Norris and Max Verstappen.

Verstappen starts from pole and is a heavy favourite to win the race, but the bigger picture remains complicated: he needs more than just a victory to overturn Norris’ points lead.

For punters, the final weekend of the season offers intriguing angles in podium and points markets, making Abu Dhabi Grand Prix betting a mix of strategy analysis and risk assessment.

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Norris Has Margin, But McLaren Can’t Relax

Norris enters Sunday with a points advantage that allows him to secure the title with a top-three finish, even if Verstappen wins.

However, McLaren’s recent stumbles suggest that “playing safe” may not be straightforward. Technical and strategic errors in recent races have cost them points and momentum, allowing Verstappen to close a gap that once looked unbridgeable.

If nerves creep in, and Norris becomes defensive rather than assertive, opportunities may open for rivals behind.

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Verstappen Starts Strong, But Title Odds Reflect Reality

Verstappen’s pole position gives him control of the start, but he is still an outsider in the title betting due to the arithmetic.

Even with race-winning pace, he needs Norris to slip — and if Norris stays clear of incidents, Verstappen’s effort may earn a win but not a championship.

This sets up a tactical scenario where tempo control, tyre offsets and pit sequences will matter as much as outright pace.

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Mercedes Could Be Best Positioned to Capitalise

While the spotlight is on the title protagonists, Mercedes have shown promising long-run pace, particularly through George Russell.

If tyre degradation or defensive driving creates volatility up front, Russell could benefit — either through speed or circumstance — making him one of the most appealing Abu Dhabi Grand Prix betting options.

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Best Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Betting Tips

⭐ George Russell – Podium Finish

Odds: 2.10

Russell has a realistic pathway to a podium given form, tyre life and the potential for disruption ahead. His race management makes him a legitimate threat.

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⭐ George Russell – Top 6 Finish

Odds: 1.20

For lower variance, Russell finishing in the top six looks highly achievable. He has been consistently competitive and rarely drops out of strong positions in clean races.

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⭐ Gabriel Bortoleto – Points Finish

Odds: 1.40

Bortoleto continues to show reliable race craft. With the midfield tightly matched, strategy and clean execution could push him into the top 10.

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Midfield Chaos Likely to Influence Outcomes

The midfield pack is close on pace and often impacted by alternative strategies or safety cars, which are common at Yas Marina.

Late-race volatility increases the appeal of bets in podium and points markets, rather than committing to short-priced picks at the front.

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Final Prediction & Betting Verdict

• Race Winner: Max Verstappen
• Podium: Verstappen – Norris – Russell
• Best Value Bet: Russell podium (2.10)
• Dark Horse: Bortoleto points

Expect a tactical race rather than an all-out sprint, with the title contenders forced to balance speed and survival.

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Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Betting Summary

Bet	Odds
Russell Podium	2.10
Russell Top 6	1.20
Bortoleto Points	1.40

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Official schedule and standings: https://www.formula1.com

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